Rebound from Golden Week powers global traffic and capacity growth
Although traffic from all other regions declined in the third week of October, the rebound of exports from key Asian economies as their factories restarted after the ‘Golden Week’ mid-autumn festival break produced a +2% expansion in global chargeable weight flown compared to the previous week (WoW). Overall pricing (in USD) rose +4% on increases out of all but one origin regions, while capacity expanded +2% on the strength of freighter deployment, rebounding from two weeks of reductions.
Resurgent exports in week 42 (12 to 18 October) from Asia Pacific produced a +9% jump over the previous week’s chargeable weight from the region, in sharp contrast with the WoW decline in volumes elsewhere. The retreat was most pronounced out of North America (-5%), which can be partly attributed to national holidays in Canada (Thanksgiving) and USA (Columbus Day/Indigenous People’s Day). Chargeable weight shrank -4% from Central and South America (CSA) also partly explained by 12 October national holiday celebrations, -3% out of the Middle East and South Asia (MESA) region, -2% out of Europe and -1% from Africa.
Asia Pacific exports rebooted
Tonnages from Asia Pacific to Europe and USA jumped +13% and +10% respectively WoW. With the exception of Japan (stabilizing after its post-Silver Week recovery), tonnage to USA was up from all Asian origins, led by double-digit increases out of Hong Kong (+27%) and China (+18%). Picking up momentum after national holidays, South Korea (+34%) led the growth to Europe, followed by China (+22%), Singapore (+16%) and Hong Kong (+11%). Volumes out of Vietnam, Japan and Malaysia to Europe retreated.
Compared to a year earlier (YoY), chargeable weight from Asia Pacific to USA was +14% higher, owing to growth out of all origins except Hong Kong. This reflects the ongoing strength of AI-related traffic crossing the Pacific, in contrast with Asia Pacific volume to Europe, which fell -16% YoY. The decline was most pronounced out of Hong Kong (-32%), due to the European Union’s moves to curtail imports of e-commerce parcels. Volumes from China and Vietnam were -12% and -10% lower than a year ago, while South Korea (+14%) was the only origin showing a double-digit YoY increase in chargeable weight to Europe.
Reduction in MESA traffic
Tonnages from MESA dropped -6% WoW to Europe and -4% to USA, dragged down by double-digit percentage slumps out of several origins. To USA tonnage was down in double digits from Dubai and Sri Lanka, while volume from India slipped -2%. To Europe volumes were down -15% from Sri Lanka and -7% from India, while tonnage from Dubai stood at +5%.
Similar to patterns from Asia Pacific, MESA volumes diverged sharply YoY between European and US destinations. While tonnage increases of +34% and +44% from India and Bangladesh powered an overall +24% increase to USA, chargeable weight to Europe was down -13%, falling from all origins except Sri Lanka.
Capacity and rates on the rise
After -1% WoW drops in the previous two weeks global capacity recovered +2%. The resumption of exports after the Golden Week holiday was met by a +6% surge in capacity out of Asia Pacific, but capacity also increased +2% out of Europe and +1% from both North America and CSA. Africa and MESA saw -2% reductions in available capacity. Comparison of the capacity of weeks 41 and 42 with the prior fortnight (2Wo2W) shows an overall decline of -1%, but a gain of +2% over the same two-week period in 2025.
Pricing climbed WoW from all origin regions except Africa, which registered a -4% drop. Rates rose +4% out of Asia Pacific, +3% from CSA, +2% from MESA and +1% from both Europe and North America. 2Wo2W overall pricing was +1% higher, owing to increases out of MESA, Europe and North America between +1% and +3%. On an annual comparison pricing was up almost +30% globally. While Europe, Asia Pacific, North America and Africa show increases between +25% and +29%, rates from MESA were +61% higher and CSA pricing advanced a moderate +7%.
Rates from Asia Pacific climbed +6% WoW to USA and +1% to Europe. Transpacific Singapore stood out with a +23% jump to USA, while pricing from other origins rose in single-digit percentages except Indonesia (flat). To Europe rates increased in single digits except from Thailand (flat), Vietnam (-1%) and Japan (-8%). Year on year Asia Pacific to USA pricing was up +41%, rising between +34% and +48% on most sectors, while the average rate to Europe was +25% higher YoY, ranging from +16% out of Hong Kong to +56% out of Indonesia.
The strength of AI-related flows has prompted predictions of a strong peak season ahead in the transpacific arena. From Asia Pacific to Europe the outlook is more uncertain in view of the €2 handling fee that will be applied to non-EU e-commerce imports per 1 November, in addition to the flat €3 customs duty per item that has already been in effect since 1 July 2026 for low-value consignments up to €150.
