Traffic contraction continues as typical end-of-summer lull nears

Global traffic contracted for another week, with chargeable weight retreating week on week (WoW) across most origin regions, which left overall pricing unchanged from the previous week, as capacity shrank yet again and fuel prices rose.

According to the latest figures from WorldACD, tonnage declined -5% globally in week 33 (10 to 16 August) compared with the prior week, dragged down by contraction from all origin regions except Central & South America (CSA), which saw chargeable weight increase +2% driven by rising flower exports. Europe and Asia Pacific led the decline with tonnage falling -6%, followed by Africa (-5%), while Middle East & South Asia (MESA) and North America registered shrinkage of -4% each.

This extended the decline seen across all origins the previous week, which had produced an overall WoW drop of -2%. On a 2Wo2W comparison, chargeable weight fell overall by -4% and were down in nearly all major trade lanes, most pronounced in Asia Pacific, where intra-regional tonnage dropped -10%, with the lanes to Europe, North America and MESA down between -5% and -3%. Volumes from Europe and North America show a 2Wo2W decline in the main corridors except to CSA, while flows from MESA fell -10% to Europe and -8% to Asia Pacific.

Compared to the same week in 2025, chargeable weight was up +3% overall, ranging from gains of +1% out of Africa and Asia Pacific to +5% (ex-Europe) and +6% (ex-MESA).

Asia Pacific flows to USA and Europe continue to diverge

After a -3% WoW drop the previous week, chargeable weight from Asia Pacific to USA sank another -4%. The decline was led by a -33% slump out of Japan – the result of the Obon festival (13 to 16 August) and tropical storm Chan-Hom, which caused dozens of flight cancellations out of Tokyo’s Haneda and Narita airports. South Korea was the only Asia Pacific origin showing growth (+12%) in USA-bound tonnage, while volume out of Vietnam was flat. The other origins suffered declines between -1% and -6%, except Indonesia (-14%).

To Europe chargeable weight out of Asia Pacific dropped -5% WoW, led by a -53% fall from Japan. With the exception of Malaysia, Taiwan and Indonesia, tonnage contracted from the other origins, ranging from -1% (Hong Kong) to -10% (Singapore).

The drop in chargeable weight to Europe marks a string of WoW declines since week 25 (June 22 to 28), except flat growth in week 29. This is in stark contrast with the traffic development to USA, which has been more varied. The gap is even more pronounced on a year-on-year (YoY) comparison, which shows a -14% decline to Europe this week and drops between -9% and -13% since week 28. Chargeable weight to USA was up +14% YoY in week 33 and has been up between +10% and +15% since week 26.

The main factor in this discrepancy has been the slump in e-commerce flows from Hong Kong and China to Europe since the end of the ‘de minimis’ exemption for the European Union, whereas the ongoing strength of AI-related demand is boosting Asia-USA volumes and increasing the gap between these two lanes.

Divergence also shows in MESA exports

Chargeable weight from MESA to Europe fell -3% WoW. A +12% increase from Dubai was cancelled out by declines of -13% from Bangladesh, -5% from Sri Lanka and -3% from India. Overall volume from the region to USA fell -13% WoW, pulled down by double-digit slumps from Bangladesh (-29%) and India (-13%).

Nevertheless, on a YoY basis chargeable weight from MESA to Europe was down -5% in week 33, with double-digit declines for all origins except India (up +12%). To USA tonnage was up +16% YoY, driven by a +29% increase from India that compensated for declines elsewhere.

Fuel costs and capacity reduction hold up pricing

Notwithstanding falling volumes in most trade corridors, pricing held firm, inching up marginally from an average of US$2.96 the previous week to $2.97. Essentially it was flat WoW as well as 2Wo2W, mainly a reflection of firming aviation fuel prices that cancelled out traffic declines.

A contributing factor has been shrinking capacity, which slipped -1% WoW.  It was the second week in a row and the third out of the last four weeks of -1% WoW contraction. Capacity dropped -2% WoW from Asia Pacific and -1% each from Europe, North America and CSA, while MESA and Africa saw increases of +2% and +1% respectively.

Pricing declined -2% WoW from North America and MESA. It was unchanged out of CSA while rising +1% from Europe and +2% from Africa and Asia Pacific. Year on year it was up between +18% and +23% out of all main origin regions except MESA (+47%) and CSA (+8%).

Spot rates from Asia Pacific to USA inched up +1% WoW, with little change (0% to +2%) out of most origins except Indonesia (+12%) and declines out of Thailand, Vietnam and South Korea. To Europe pricing was flat WoW, moving in a range of -4% to +2% except Japan, which registered a drop of -16%.

On a WoW basis spot rates declined out of MESA to USA (-1%) and Europe (-2%). Rates to USA climbed +5% out of Sri Lanka but slid from India (-1%) and Dubai (-2%) while staying unchanged out of Bangladesh. To Europe pricing was unchanged out of India but retreated between -1% and -5% elsewhere. Year on year pricing was up +54% to Europe and +56% to USA.

Overall the last two weeks show a strong similarity to patterns seen a year earlier – tonnage in decline in mid-single digits, capacity little changed and pricing slightly up. If this parallel were to hold, week 34 would produce an uptick, but times are volatile.