Global tonnage turns negative after weeks of growth
Seasonal events are impacting air cargo traffic and rate development in the week ending 15 February. After a run of five consecutive week-on-week increases in global airfreight tonnage, worldwide volumes dropped -7% as all flowers had been delivered for Valentine’s Day and global trade activity slowed down in the run-up to the Lunar New Year (LNY) holiday that started earlier this week on 17 February.
Compared to the previous week tonnage declined in all regions, led by a -24% drop in volume from Central & South America (CSA), after flower exports from the region had peaked at the beginning of February. Likewise, a -5% weekly drop in outbound volume from Africa can be fully attributed to the end of the pre-Valentine’s Day flower export surge from Kenya and Ethiopia. The week-on-week drop in global flower exports represented one third of the worldwide decline.
In line with falling exports, Africa and CSA were the only two regions showing capacity reduction compared to the previous two-week period (2Wo2W), whereas overall capacity in the 2-15 February fortnight was 2% higher, with increases for all other origin regions, especially North America (+6%) related to the post-winter storm recovery.
Capacity was up +10% overall when comparing the last two weeks with the same period last year, led by Asia Pacific and Middle East & South Asia (MESA) showing increases of +18% and +14%, respectively. These increases are chiefly due to the pre-Lunar New Year rush, as LNY starts more than two weeks later this year (17 February) than in 2025 (29 January), resulting in double-digit annual rises.
According to the latest weekly figures and analysis from WorldACD Market Data, in week 7 (9 to 15 February) global tonnage was +7% higher than a year ago, driven by traffic originating Asia Pacific (+22%) and MESA (+9%). Tonnage rose +4% out of Africa and +1% from CSA but was flat out of North America and fell -8% out of Europe.
Global airfreight pricing continued to rise, climbing +2%, WoW, to $2.45, which is +7% higher than the same period a year ago. On a year-on-year basis there is a marked divergence between rates out of Europe (+12% higher), Asia Pacific and Africa (both +7%) on the one hand, and from MESA (-10%), CSA (-6%) and North America (-2%). However, it is difficult to derive any clear trends from these, as the seasonal events are impacting the traffic patterns significantly.
Overall, worldwide average pricing is showing a slightly positive trend, but with factories in much of Asia closed this week, demand and rates are likely to experience headwinds similar to last year during LNY, triggering reductions and shifts in capacity.
Volumes from China and Hong Kong declined, while Southeast Asia still surged
Total tonnage out of Asia Pacific dropped -5% from week 6, as pre-LNY momentum slowed. Chargeable weight from Asia Pacific to the US climbed +1% from week 6, bolstered by growing volumes out of Southeast Asia, notably double-digit gains from Malaysia (+27%) and Vietnam (+10%) – possibly still due to front-loading ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday, whereas tonnage from China and Hong Kong slipped -1% and -6%, respectively. Japan’s export tonnage dropped -3% to the US, related to the National Foundation holiday on 11 February.
To Europe tonnage from the Asia Pacific region declined -2%, WoW, as volumes decreased from China (-2%) and Hong Kong (-5%). Japan’s exports were also down to Europe, by -5%. Higher volumes from South Korea (+7%) and Malaysia (+10%) to Europe are possibly reflections of final front-loading before the holiday.
Whereas in the other direction, chargeable weight from North America and Europe to the Asia Pacific region decreased by -5% and -8%, respectively, due also to the LNY slowdown in Asia Pacific.
Different dynamics ex-MESA to US vs Europe, ahead of LNY and Ramadan
Airfreight volume from MESA dropped -3%, WoW, in the week leading up to the start of the Ramadan period on 17 February, coinciding with the start of LNY, but was up +9% year on year (YoY). Tonnage to Europe grew +5%, WoW, driven by rising traffic from mainly Dubai (+17%) and Sri Lanka (+11%), while volumes from India remained flat. Year on year volumes on this trade lane were up +13%, led by Dubai (+37%), Sri Lanka and Colombo (both +27%), and India +8%.
On the other hand, volumes out of MESA to the US declined -8%, WoW, with all origins showing lower chargeable weight. Exports from Bangladesh fell -36%, WoW, while origin Sri Lanka registered -24% contraction. However, comparing to the same period last year, MESA volume to the US was up +10%, with double-digit growth in all origins except Sri Lanka.
