Developments China and United States

13 March 2025

Today China and the United States have announced an agreement to roll back tariffs. If we look at the development of the last few weeks, this will have a significant impact on air cargo. The chart below shows recent weekly demand trends for air cargo shipments from China and Hong Kong (HKG) to the United States (left) and to Europe (right). The data covers up to week 18, ending Sunday, May 4 – just two days after the US ended the de minimis exemption for packages from China and Hong Kong, leading to import taxes on small packages worth less than US$800.
In the four-week period from week 15 to week 18:

Air cargo exports from China/HKG to the US dropped by -13% compared to the same period in 2024.
Air cargo exports from China/HKG to Europe increased by +7% over the same time frame.
For context, global air cargo volumes were up +3% year-to-date through week 18, but demand has flattened in the last two weeks.
A return to normalcy can’t come soon enough.

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