September 2019 copies average of preceding six months…

October 31, 2019

September 2019 at a glance:
Total Chargeable Weight: -5.4% year-over-year (YoY); +1% month-over-month (MoM).
General cargo -8.7% YoY, Special cargo +2.7% YoY.
Direct Ton Kilometers (DTK’s): -6.1% (viewed in combination with the 5.4% volume decrease, this signifies a shift - on average - from longer haul to shorter haul markets).
Yield stood at USD 1.72 (-11.5% YoY, +0.4% MoM).  The yield in EUR stood at 1.56.
The cargo load factor dropped by 3.6 percentage-points YoY, but increased by 2.3 MoM.
High-Tech & Other Vulnerable Goods increased by 9.1% YoY, whilst Pharma & Temperature Controlled Goods rose by 10.2% YoY. Perishables in total grew 1.4% YoY: fish & seafood did best (+10.2% YoY) and flowers did worst (-1.1%).

(See www.worldacd.com/yields for more yield developments)

Our story is in danger of becoming monotonous, dull, or whatever synonym you care to choose: September was no different from most earlier months of the year. We saw worldwide volume shrink by 5.4% YoY, yield (in USD) by 11.5%, and revenues  from air cargo (in USD) by 16.3%. All origin regions suffered, Asia Pacific most (volumes down by 5.8% YoY, and revenues in USD by 18.9%) and Africa least (volumes down by 3.2% YoY, and revenues in USD by 6.2%). The destination Middle East & South Asia did better than all other destination areas (volume YoY -1% only). During the first three quarters of the year, all areas showed negative YoY trends, both in outgoing and in incoming volumes; Africa outbound was the only exception, registering a mere 1.1% increase…
 
The first three quarters of 2019 showed very different pictures for the 40 largest origin countries, which – together - produce 87% of the total air cargo volume in the world. Only 10 countries showed a volume increase YoY. As a group, these top-10 realized a growth of 8.3%. For the other thirty countries combined, growth was negative (-7.4%).

What caused the top-10 to outgrow the others by such a large margin?

The answer can be found in the data on special cargo. Compared with the first nine months of 2018, the top-10 countries increased their combined special cargo volume by 10.3%. The other thirty countries barely managed to grow in this category: +0.6%. But even more telling is the fact that in the top-10 countries combined, more than half of the total consists of special cargo (51.4% for Q1-3 2018 vs 52.3% for Q1-3 2019). For the other thirty countries, the share of special cargo is only a quarter.

For years already, special cargo has outgrown general cargo, a trend propelled by an increased worldwide demand for special products (in particular perishables). Thus, it does not come as a surprise that Norway, Kenya, Colombia and Chile, countries in which outgoing special cargo accounts for more than 80% of the total, are all part of the Top-10 group. Norway is in fact the top-country with a growth of almost 20%, whilst Pakistan and Vietnam also score growth above 10%. The group is completed by Egypt, Indonesia, South Africa and China. The latter country had no overall growth, but it recorded a 12.8% YoY growth in special cargo (mainly High-Tech).

Lastly, the important role of special cargo reveals itself not only in volumes, but also in yields/rates. In Q1-3 2019, we saw the USD-yield drop by 8% YoY for general cargo, but by 4% for special cargo. And the gap was larger still in the abovementioned top-10 countries, which saw their combined special cargo yields drop by 2% only.

 

WorldACD has the world's largest air cargo market database. For a large number of markets, WorldACD is the prime source of cargo market information. 

At the end of each month, we update the Index and Previews on our website. At the same time, we publish our monthly Trends.

To receive the Trends every month by e-mail, please click "Register".


                Register

              
     Previous issues