November 2017 proves that records are there to be broken

 

December 31, 2017

With November figures in, it is clear once again that the year 2017 breaks one air cargo record after another. The record volume worldwide, as seen in October, has already been relegated to the history books one month later: November beat October by 1.3%. For the third month in a row, the year-over-year (YoY) yield increase in USD had to be written in double figures, this time the highest since the recovery after the 2009-crisis: +17.3% YoY (note that the price of jet fuel increased by 35% over the same period).

With volumes growing YoY at 7.8% in November (and 8.9% in DTK), airline revenues in USD for the month were more than 26% higher than in November 2016. The WorldACD volume index, showing every month the moving average for the then last 12 months, steadily increased over the course of 2017, from just over 120 in January to 131.6 in November (year 2008 = 100).

The most striking feature of the November figures was the yield increase from Europe. Measured in EUR, yields jumped by almost 19% YoY to all destinations worldwide. The Americas played an important part in this jump: YoY yields from Europe to destination North America rose by 28% and to Central & South America (C&SA) by 25% (in USD the figures were 40% and 36% respectively). Other origin areas shared in the USD-yield bonanza, with the exception of C&SA, which saw its overall yield decrease slightly YoY; yields to its most important destination - North America - showed a marginal improvement of 1.3% YoY.

In terms of November-volumes, a number of markets showed double digit growth figures YoY. In the larger markets, these were Asia Pacific to North America (+11.5%), Europe to Middle East & South Asia (MESA) (+11.3%), and MESA to Europe (+21.1%). Of the smaller markets, we mention C&SA to Europe (+12.2%), North America to MESA (+19.5%), and MESA to Africa (+20.1%). Asia Pacific strengthened its position as prime growth market.

Looking at the various groups of airlines, we noted that airlines from Africa, North America Asia Pacific and Europe contributed more than average to the YoY volume growth of 7.8%. They managed to grow by 14.5%, 11.4%, 9.4% and 8.7% respectively. Airlines based in MESA grew by 5.2% YoY, whilst airlines from Central & South America saw their total volume decrease by 6.4%. Of the airlines growing more than 20% YoY, three are based in Africa, three in Europe and two in MESA

Additional data in 2018  & our best wishes

As from today, we will publish on our website the actual yields for a number of select sample markets against the background of volume developments in those markets: we believe this will give general readers new insights into the changes in air cargo markets. See www.worldacd.com/yields.  For subscribers to our market data service, such data are available for thousands of individual markets. We also plan to provide our subscribers in the new year with further information on product sales per forwarder.

We should like to take this opportunity to wish all readers of our monthly trends messages a healthy, happy and successful 2018!